Quick talking points on the men’s draw (or let’s just throw out that second run)…

I just wanted to rush through a few things pertaining to the men’s draw. I will stick to the seeding for tonight and go around the pods tomorrow.

First off, there has been some confusion on the rankings I posted Sunday. Those are what I feel the ITA Rankings are if they actually published the double-run today. I know this to be quite accurate because I have tested it several times.

I have no agenda or care one way or another. I just like a math problem and trying to solve it.

Several people have thought these were mine or thought there might be a mistake with UCLA jumping so high. Honestly, I did too, so I have checked and double-checked and until someone from the ITA says otherwise, UCLA is currently #2 in their rankings.

If you look at what I posted about the women’s seeds, you will see I was 100% correct on the top-16 and understand why the NCAA Committee altered some seeds.

I also want to state that it is absolutely the NCAA Committees prerogative to change the seeds how they see fit. I do not have an issue, I just want to point out how I think they got there from the actual data.

So here’s what I say was the ITA Rankings if they were double run with the actual NCAA seeds next to them.

# Predicted ITA NCAA seed
1 University of Southern California University of Southern California
2 UCLA University of Georgia
3 University of Georgia University of Virginia
4 University of Virginia UCLA
5 Ohio State University Ohio State University
6 University of Kentucky University of Kentucky
7 Duke University Pepperdine
8 Pepperdine Duke University
9 Mississippi State University Mississippi State University
10 University of Oklahoma University of Oklahoma
11 Stanford University Stanford University
12 California University of Florida
13 University of Florida University of Mississippi
14 University of Mississippi California
15 University of Illinois North Carolina
16 North Carolina University of Illinois

They really aren’t too far off, except a few blips here and there. The most obvious would be UCLA jumping from the 5th-ranked team last week to second. One simple reason would be that UCLA added another win against Cal this week. That allowed them to drop #26 Washington as their lowest win and replace it with #14 Cal. Only two of Georgia’s wins get the away bonus, while three do for UCLA. The divisor for each school is about the same (9.3 to 9.4). Georgia’s lowest win was #15 Auburn. So you can see, these teams were close.

Then I realized something this evening.

I decided to look at this week’s first run the ITA was supposed to do and this i what I found.

1 University of Southern California
2 University of Georgia
3 University of Virginia
4 UCLA
5 Ohio State University
6 University of Kentucky
7 Pepperdine
8 Duke University
9 Mississippi State University
10 University of Oklahoma
11 California
12 Stanford University
13 University of Florida
14 University of Mississippi
15 North Carolina
16 University of Illinois

Does that look familiar? Let’s see it next to the NCAA seeds

# ITA first run NCAA seed
1 University of Southern California University of Southern California
2 University of Georgia University of Georgia
3 University of Virginia University of Virginia
4 UCLA UCLA
5 Ohio State University Ohio State University
6 University of Kentucky University of Kentucky
7 Pepperdine Pepperdine
8 Duke University Duke University
9 Mississippi State University Mississippi State University
10 University of Oklahoma University of Oklahoma
11 California Stanford University
12 Stanford University University of Florida
13 University of Florida University of Mississippi
14 University of Mississippi California
15 North Carolina North Carolina
16 University of Illinois University of Illinois

Pretty amazing stuff, eh? It’s obvious they didn’t like what they saw with the double run, so they went with the first run.

As for Cal getting bumped down…. They had two losses to Stanford. I guess they thought they needed to be dropped further back to their spot the week before. Cal had actually jumped so high in the rankings because they didn’t have 9 ranked wins before beating Washington in Ojai last weekend. They gave them a huge bump That was 40-50 points right there.

So that’s how I think they got there. It is their decision, I just like seeing the data behind it.

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